gametocyte densities estimated by individual quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA). Panels depict hypothetical ‘true’ and estimated gametocyte densities for assays j = 1, 2,…, 12. Solid and broken lines denote, respectively, medians and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (BCIs) of the gametocytaemia posterior distributions calculated from the heteroscedastic linear mixed model (HeLMM) and the homoscedastic linear model (HoLM), as defined in the main text. Dark and light grey lines correspond to, respectively, BCIs for m = 1 time to positivity (TTP) observation and the mean of m = 3 TTP observations. The light-grey shaded area indicates the detection threshold of 1 gametocyte per 0.05 ml of blood.