Table 2 Distribution of the external test set (n = 2,763 trials) across the 28-class grouping of the GBD cause list, performance of the best performing version of the classifier in the external test set, and projection of all trials in the WHO ICTRP database (n = 109,603)

Neoplasms

958

97.4 [96.7-97.7]

97.5 [97.0-97.7]

95.3 [94.4-95.8]

38.2 [28.7-50.8]

0.03 [0.02-0.04]

25,004 (22.8)

Diabetes, urinary diseases and male infertility

242

81.0 [78.0-83.0]

97.4 [97.0-97.7]

75.1 [72.1-77.4]

31.4 [24.5-40.2]

0.20 [0.15-0.25]

9,749 (8.9)

Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases

235

75.7 [72.5-78.1]

97.6 [97.2-97.9]

74.8 [71.6-77.2]

31.9 [24.6-41.4]

0.25 [0.20-0.31]

8,906 (8.1)

Mental and behavioral disorders

143

93.7 [90.5-94.7]

98.7 [98.4-98.9]

80.2 [76.5-82.6]

74.4 [52.9-104.7]

0.06 [0.03-0.12]

7,609 (6.9)

Musculoskeletal disorders

113

88.5 [84.2-90.3]

98.5 [98.2-98.7]

71.4 [67.1-74.6]

58.6 [42.8-80.3]

0.12 [0.07-0.19]

6,112 (5.6)

HIV/AIDS

97

88.7 [83.9-90.4]

99.7 [99.6-99.8]

92.5 [88.0-93.6]

337.7 [160.6-710.0]

0.11 [0.07-0.20]

2,295 (2.1)

Neurological disorders

93

84.9 [79.9-87.3]

98.5 [98.2-98.7]

66.4 [61.6-70.1]

56.7 [41.2-78.0]

0.15 [0.09-0.25]

6,355 (5.8)

Chronic respiratory diseases

81

93.8 [89.0-94.6]

99.4 [99.1-99.5]

81.7 [76.5-84.4]

148.0 [91.9-238.5]

0.06 [0.03-0.15]

4,104 (3.7)

Sense organ diseases

56

92.9 [86.5-93.7]

98.5 [98.2-98.7]

56.5 [51.2-61.3]

62.8 [45.8-86.2]

0.07 [0.03-0.19]

3,461 (3.2)

Injuries

56

16.1 [13.4-23.1]

99.5 [99.3-99.6]

39.1 [31.2-50.1]

31.1 [14.0-68.8]

0.07 [0.03-0.19]

655 (0.6)

Diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, meningitis, and other common infectious diseases

49

81.6 [73.9-84.8]

99.2 [99.0-99.3]

65.6 [58.7-70.6]

105.5 [67.5-164.8]

0.19 [0.10-0.33]

3,200 (2.9)

Maternal disorders

43

39.5 [33.2-47.6]

99.8 [99.7-99.8]

77.3 [64.7-81.7]

215.1 [83.1-556.4]

0.61 [0.48-0.77]

602 (0.5)

Digestive diseases (except cirrhosis)

32

75.0 [65.0-79.7]

99.0 [98.7-99.1]

46.2 [39.7-53.1]

73.2 [48.1-111.3]

0.25 [0.14-0.46]

4,454 (4.1)

Cirrhosis of the liver

23

82.6 [70.2-85.6]

99.4 [99.2-99.5]

52.8 [44.6-60.4]

133.1 [80.0-221.6]

0.17 [0.07-0.43]

1,412 (1.3)

Congenital anomalies

23

95.7 [78.1-99.9]

98.8 [98.5-98.9]

39.3 [33.7-46.3]

77.1 [54.6-108.9]

0.04 [0.01-0.30]

1,947 (1.8)

Skin and subcutaneous diseases

22

81.8 [69.1-85.1]

99.1 [98.9-99.2]

42.9 [36.1-50.8]

93.4 [59.9-145.7]

0.18 [0.08-0.45]

3,652 (3.3)

Hepatitis

17

82.4 [67.5-85.3]

99.9 [99.7-99.9]

77.8 [63.7-82.1]

565.4 [207.2-1542.5]

0.18 [0.06-0.49]

1,082 (1.0)

Tuberculosis

16

87.5 [71.9-88.5]

99.9 [99.8-99.9]

87.5 [71.9-88.5]

1201.8 [297.0-4862.5]

0.13 [0.03-0.46]

306 (0.3)

Nutritional deficiencies

16

68.8 [54.6-75.7]

99.5 [99.2-99.5]

42.3 [34.2-52.4]

125.9 [68.9-230.1]

0.31 [0.15-0.65]

1,226 (1.1)

Hemoglobinopathies and hemolytic anemias

16

62.5 [49.1-71.0]

99.9 [99.7-99.9]

71.4 [55.9-77.8]

429.2 [150.2-1226.9]

0.38 [0.20-0.71]

360 (0.3)

Malaria

14

100.0 [78.5-100.0]

100.0 [99.9-100.0]

93.3 [68.1-99.8]

2749.0 [387.4-19508.4]

-

442 (0.4)

Gynecological diseases

11

81.8 [62.7-84.4]

99.6 [99.4-99.7]

47.4 [37.4-58.3]

225.2 [114.2-443.8]

0.18 [0.05-0.64]

1,536 (1.4)

Neonatal disorders

10

40.0 [29.5-56.0]

99.7 [99.6-99.8]

36.4 [27.3-52.5]

157.3 [54.5-454.1]

0.60 [0.36-1.00]

718 (0.7)

Oral disorders

8

37.5 [27.3-55.8]

99.9 [99.7-99.9]

42.9 [30.3-60.5]

258.3 [68.6-973.0]

0.63 [0.37-1.07]

576 (0.5)

Neglected tropical diseases excluding malaria

7

85.7 [42.1-99.6]

100.0 [99.9-100.0]

100.0 [61.0-100.0]

-

0.14 [0.02-0.88]

361 (0.3)

Leprosy

2

100.0 [15.8-100.0]

100.0 [99.9-100.0]

66.7 [38.7-76.0]

2761.0 [389.1-19593.6]

-

74 (0.1)

Sexually transmitted diseases excluding HIV

1

0.0 [0.0-97.5]

99.8 [99.7-99.8]

0.0 [0.0-43.4]

-

-

187 (0.2)

Sudden infant death syndrome

0

-

100.0 [99.9-100.0]

-

-

-

5 (0.0)

No GBD category

407

53.1 [50.6-55.5]

92.9 [92.3-93.4]

56.4 [53.8-58.9]

7.5 [6.3-8.9]

0.51 [0.46-0.56]

22,450 (20.5)