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Table 1 Initial values of parameter estimated

From: Epidemic prediction of dengue fever based on vector compartment model and Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Parameters

Description

Initial value

Assumption

 

Unit of simulation time scale

1

Day

 

Unit of parameter timebase

 

Year

\({{a}}\)

Rate host on vector bite

0.5

Bites per day

\({{{b}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host on infectious bite

0.5

Positive per bite

\({{{\mu}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host nature mortality

5.5 × 10–5

Dead ratio per day/50-year life

\({{{\gamma}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host recovery

1 × 10–2

Recovered ratio per day/3 month

\({{{\eta}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host to vector infection

0.375

Probability of infection

\({{{\sigma}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host immunity loss

1 × 10–3

Loss ratio per day

\({{{\Lambda}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Rate host growth

10

Numbers per day

\({{{c}}}_{{{M}}}\)

Rate vector on infectious host bite

0.8

Bites per day

\({{{\mu}}}_{{{M}}}\)

Rate vector nature mortality

0.143

Dead ratio per day/1-week life span

\({{{\eta}}}_{{{M}}}\)

Rate vector to host infection

0.75

Probability of infection

\({{{\Lambda}}}_{{{M}}}\)

Rate vector growth

1000

Numbers increase per day/hatch rate should be time-variant

\({{r}}\)

\(a/{N}_{H}\) rate bite per mosquito per human

  

\({{{N}}}_{{{H}}}\)

Host population size

1020